Champion Hurdle

This is not a preview as such more just what I think is the value in the race and worth a bet. I know Keji is sweet on one of the market principals so hopefully he will whack up a preview at some point – I also know he may have some more nuggets of information regards Cheltenham in the coming days as he was at a preview night last night.

Anyhow to cut to the chase.

Champion Hurdle – Un De Sceaux 2pt win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes

This bet is purely based on Un De Sceaux’s untapped potential and the handy concession from Ladbrokes that the stake will be returned if Hurricane Fly finishes 1^st or 2^nd and considering he is 5/2 that’s a pretty decent fall back. Ladbrokes are also NRNB on Un De Sceaux so if he doesn’t turn up which appears 50/50 then there is no harm done.

As for the horse’s chances I give you these comments for his seven victories so far:

• Made all, soon clear, coasted home unchallenged, very easily.
• Made all, quickly opened up clear advantage, ridden on turn into straight, stayed on well, unchallenged.
• Soon led, keen early, joined from 2 out, going best approaching last and edged ahead, pushed clear run-in, comfortably.
• Made all, took keen hold, joined before 2 out, still going well into straight and asserted, stayed on well, easily.
• Made all, extended advantage travelling well 4 out, well clear and took keen hold when slight mistake last, very easily.
• Made all, not fluent 4th, 2 lengths clear halfway, extended advantage from 4 out travelling well, distance clear when not fluent last, very easily.
• Made all, ran slightly off bend after 3rd, always in command, very easily.

Admittedly he hasn’t beaten much of note but rated at 159 he could very well be worth a bit more. On RPR (which is obviously not fool proof) he is rated 168 – the same as Our Conor and 5 less than My Tent or The New One.

As such I think there is a case he gets out into the lead and there is the chance he just doesn’t come back to the field. No one really knows how good Un De Sceaux actually is – cue Ruby Walsh:  “What I love about this horse is the way he behaves in the middle of a race. He just sustains a relentless gallop and then is able to keep it up it right to the line. Truth to tell, I just don’t have a clue as to how good he is.”

Being as I love the odd trend here are some to mull over …

• 25 of the last 30 winners won last time out – Excludes Jezki, Our Conor, The New One
• 22 of the last 24 winners won a race previously that season – Our Conor
• All 73 five year olds since 1985 were beaten, until 2008 – Our Conor
• Only 4 winners older than eight since 1951 – Hurricane Fly (Last 10 year old? = Sea Pigeon 1981)
• Last 4 winners posted an RPR above 160+ last time (8 of last 10) – Only 4 fit that My Tent or Yours, Hurricane Fly, The New One, Un De Sceaux

My Tent has his foot problem and well just for good measure the Irish have won 9 of the last 15 renewals.

And if you want one more trend-buster!

• 5 of the last 7 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1 – of the principles. Not many will fall into that!!

Trends can always be taken with a pinch of salt admittedly. Alas at 16s with a bet to nothing almost he has to be the value bet in this field – really if he runs I think he should be nearer 7-8s and with NRNB it’s the bet.