York Day 3 – Part One

Another good day on the Knavesmire as Navajo Chief won at a nice price of 15/2 to secure 10pts of profit overall. Rather peeved with myself for not advising people to back Secret Gesture with Paddy Power who returned the each way part of the bet … alas on to tomorrow and three bets. I’d reckon Keji will swing in with a couple more later and he is definitely worth following at present.

 

• 2.45 York – Ahzeemah 2pt e/w @ 9/1 (15/2 Paddy Power)
• 2.45 York – High Jinx 1pt win @ 22/1 (16/1 Paddy Power)

The ground here will be key and I’m hopeful it will continue to dry out which would give Ahzeehmah a cracking chance. The Dubawi gelding has a cracking record on ground with good in the description over distances of 12f+ with a record of 21-22122212- for a 30% win s/r and a 100% place s/r. His win at the back of end last season at York looks a key piece of form and although he then ran poorly at Ascot the ground was pretty terrible. High Jinx is also worth backing as a cover bet as he will also really appreciate the drying ground and at 22/1 is too big to ignore. On decent ground over 1m 4f his record his 12-1222-42. I also wouldn’t be too concerned with his reappearance at Nottingham as he has never won first time up – his record on his second run however is much improved. High Jinx also has been placed twice in his two runs at York. The favourite as it goes Tac De Boistron really needs cut. Of the rest Camborne worries me most but I can’t back them all!

(Worth noting if you wanted to back them with Paddy Power it would make perfect sense as returns stake if 2nd/3rd).

 

 

• 7.50 Aintree – Pure Faith 1pt e/w @ 20/1

There’s an element of madness about this bet but I do think Pure Faith on decent ground is a price worth chancing having much better form in the summer months – coincides with the stable which has a fantastic level stakes profit during May for the past five years. Pure Faith hasn’t run well this season but based on his exploits last summer – beat Ciceron off 125, then finished 2^nd in two decent races off 132 and today’s mark of 134 he is worth backing at 20/1. That last race he finished 2l behind the 126 rated Storm Survivor and ahead of a number of decent horses not least the Grand National winner Pineau De Re and Problema Tic who re-opposes here. His record at Aintree on good ground is decent 5-3-12-5-0 (amusingly the second he actually beat Master Minded who was rated 178 at the time). His record in May, June and July reads even better on good, good-to-firm and firm with a 43% win rate and 71% place rate from 14 runs (only once outside of the first 4). It’s obviously competitive but at 20s he’s definitely worth a poke.

Aintree Day 3 – Grand National pokes!

Keji will be along with his later in the day… My time is pushed today so not much elaboration. Profit of 3.37pts yesterday thanks to Josses Hill, Sewn Up and a decent effort from Cash And Go.

 

1.30 Aintree

Interestingly I looked the other day at how many rides Richard Johnson had had for Henderson over the last 5 years. The answer was none as far I’m aware so it’s rather curious to see him on Volnay De Thaix. However, I’m not letting that put us off this horse trotted round Newbury the other day and on flat tracks he’s 3/3 the only defeat coming behind Irving at Ascot – who obviously bombed in the Supreme but previously was the best juvenile hurdle in England. Much like Beat That I expect the step up in trip will suit, he’s also got form with the soft in the conditions, and although Geraghty has plumped for Oscar Hoof I feel have may have picked wrong for once. Lac Fontana is respected but he’s yet to convince away from Cheltenham. Sea Lord is interesting after a 139 day break and Wilde Blue Yonder fared best of these in the Supreme and that form was well advertised today.

• Volnay De Thaix 1pt win @ 9/1

 

2.05 Aintree

The record of Arkle runners in this is pretty decent with a record 8 of the last 10 coming from that race. They finished 123F1221 so a big pointer to those who did run in the race ala Ted Veale and Trifolium. It’s also worth noting that 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three. On trends therefore you’d have to fancy Trifolium who is actually the best rated in here. I’m kind of surprised he is as big as 10/3 because Hinterland’s form in relation to Grandouet looks a fair bit weaker. Balder Succes has been saved for this and I’ve backed him a few times – stable is in great form with 2 winners this week so I’d look to him as the biggest danger. Next Sensation takes a big step up in class from handicap company but at 5/1 he looks short enough. The rest shouldn’t be good enough although worth noting a 28/1 shot won this last year … Going for Trifolium with McCoy up top and the forecast. Some other nugget on Trifolium his record running with 28 days is 22112122.

• Trifolium 2pt win @ 10/3
• Trifolium/Balder Success 0.5pt reverse forecast

 

2.50 Aintree

At Fishers Cross on his best form and the World Hurdle form is a cut above this lot but at 7/4 he’s not really a betting proposition. He’s got the beating of Zarkandar and Salubrious on that form – while Thousand Stars who does have a good record at Aintree hasn’t won a race anywhere since June 2010. Melodic Rendezvous could well improve for the step up to 3m – though I’m a little puzzled they didn’t try him over 2m 4f first .. the one I like though at a price is Whisper. Who could continue to improve from handicap company into graded races. Winning the Coral Cup is no mean feat and winning that off a mark of 153 when any number are well handicapped was some effort. He’s got a little to find with At Fishers Cross but he is at least in cracking form and only him and Melodic have actually won a race this season.

• Whisper 2pt win @ 5/1

 

3.25 Aintree

Victor Hewgo is quite possibly the best handicapped horse in training have run up the backsides of Holywell and Western Warhorse alas the betting public have not missed that and he’s a best priced 7/2 for this 18 runner chase. The two I fancy against the field are the top weight Unioniste who has plenty of weight but also plenty of class and his record at Aintree is 2/2 with a good win in a listed race back in December. The soft ground won’t be an inconvenience if it comes as he’s 314313 on soft/good-to-soft ground. The other one I like is the rather unfancied Wiesentraum. He’s better on good ground but the form of his two runs at Fakenham off this kind of mark read well. He beat The Rainbow Hunter off 127 and then was beaten a head by Baile Anrai off 130. Racing off the same mark today and with first time blinkers he can run well. I may sling Victor Hewgo in for the tricast.

• Unioniste 1pt win @ 7/1
• Wiesentraum 0.5pt win @ 16/1

 

4.15 Grand National

Some useful trends – not that trends are the be all and end. Not going to go through every runner!

• 10/10 winners were aged between 8 and 11
• 10/10 had run since the National weights were announced – Feb 11^th
• 10/10 had won a chase worth £29k+
• 10/10 had won a chase over 3m+
• 10/10 had won run in at least 10 chases
• 10/10 had run 3-6 times since September 1^st
• 10/10 had won no more than 1 chase that season
• The last six winners had all been rated above 148 at one point in time.

Of those these fit the trends best: Long Run; Quito De La Roque; Teaforthree; Monbeg Dude; Burton Port; Chance Du Roy.

A number of others only fall down on one or two of the trends.

A number, however, fall down on plenty these include: Rose Of The Moon; Rocky Creek; Walkon; Mr Moonshine; Buckers Bride; Kruzhlinin; Vesper Bell; Goonyella.

 

Alas the ones I like are as follows – Burton Port; Chance Du Roy; Vintage Star and Colbert Station. I’m not going to blurt on about any of them.

• Burton Port 1pt e/w @ 16/1
• Chance Du Roy 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1
• Colbert Station 0.5pt e/w @ 50/1
• Vintage Star 0.25pt e/w @ 66/1

EDIT – I’M ADDING ONE TO MY MAD PORTFOLIO – TOTALLY IGNORING THE TRENDS.

• Rocky Creek 1pt e/w @ 16/1

 

 

5.10 Aintree

Two against the field. I have no time to elaborate just think Court Minstrel has the most class in here and Drumlee is the most unexposed and has a top notch apprentice on board.

 

• Court Minstrel 1pt win @ 14/1
• Drumlee 1pt win @ 14/1

 

I’ve no clue about the bumper!

 

Aintree Day Two

A loss of 2 pts yesterday as Dunraven Storm won at Taunton and Kaylif Aramis ran a cracker to come second to bag the each way money at 16/1. However, there were a few disappointments not least Western Warhorse who appeared not to stay and got himself very wound up pre-race. I’d crabbed the form of the Jewson before the race but Uxizandre won nicely and looks one to keep on side. Oscar Whisky may also bag a decent prize at some stage.

 

2.00 Aintree

This lacks the stand out animal from the last few years renewals – namely the ill-fated Darlan and My Tent Or Yours – but in Josses Hill, Nicky Henderson has another likely winner. It’s also worth noting 4 of the last 10 winners of this race ran in the Supreme – not altogether that surprising a stat – but three of those were Henderson animals, the afore mentioned two and Spirit Son. On official figures you’d have to fancy Josses Hill and although Sgt Reckless was a big eye-catcher in the Supreme he still has something to find with the winner who shouldn’t be disadvantaged by a flatter track and potentially rain. Of the rest King Of The Picts catches my eye as his previous form behind Vautour and The Tullow Tank entitles him to be shorter than 20/1. For instance I’d rather back him than Art of Payroll who is trading at 5s – considering King Of The Picts beat Art of Payroll by 24l at Christmas. Given a break he is underestimated. The other one that catches my eye is the Rebecca Curtis trained Irish Cavalier who is a bigger price at 22/1 but again could well be underestimated taking this step up in class. He’s 3/3 going left-handed over hurdles and has also got a decent record on flat tracks. I do think Josses Hill wins with someone to spare here but going to have a small saver on the other two. By all means try em for the tricast!

 

• Josses Hill 3pt win @ 15/8
• King Of The Picts 0.5pt win @ 20/1
• Irish Cavalier 0.5pt win @ 221

 

2.30 Aintree

A decent turnout for the next race, the Mildmay Novices, and we see the current RSA champ O’faolains Boy look to do the double in here. All six hold some claims, albeit Just A Par looks potentially the least likely to win. It is worth noting he ran well on this day last year in the Sefton Novices which was run by At Fishers Cross. Of the principles though I’m siding with Wonderful Charm from the Nicholls yard who have won three of the last eight renewals. A step up in trip should suit this horse whose form has been well advertised by Oscar Whisky and Uxizandre run well today. He’s the highest rated in here and the soft ground shouldn’t be an inconvenience with a record of 1811 when soft is in the description. All of them won’t have a problem with the soft mind … I’d be concerned with O’faolains whether he’d prefer a stiffer test and although Holywell is thoroughly likeable and has got his act together over fences – he seems one which would prefer a bigger field for me.

 

• Wonderful Charm 2pt win @ 4/1

3.05 Aintree

Another race which lacks the class of recent years mainly because there is no Sprinter Sacre or Cue Card in here but it will give someone the opportunity to pick up a Grade 1. Module is top rated in here and initially was the horse I was going to put up because the Champion Chase suggested the step up in trip would help and although 5s is a reasonable price. I’d be concerned that the previous times he’s tried the trip in the Peterborough Chase and the 2013 Jewson he’s been found wanting. One who won’t have a problem with the trip is the wonderfully game Wishful Thinking who has a decent record over C&D with one win and two seconds from six attempts. He though again may find one or two a little too good. Ballynagour is enigmatic and is a horse I feel who is better after a break – threw in a stinker at Cheltenham last year shortly after an awesome run. Of the rest I think you could make a case for any number of them but whether I’d feel confident about them I’m not sure. At a price I think French Opera can go well as his fifth in the Grand Annual shows he retains ability. No bet alas.

 

3.40 Aintree

This is like sticking a pin on the donkey this race ala The Grand National. I won’t elaborate on anything too much – however some pointers. Which are only pointers and as such should be taken with a pinch of salt. The last 8 winners were officially rated 128 to 141 – while 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-7 or less. Top weights have a woeful record. Additionally, the usual freshness at Aintree quote doesn’t ring true as 9 of the 10 winners had run in the last 35 days – while all 10 of the last 10 had won over 2m 3f and had won a class 3 or higher chase worth £9k+. All 10 of the winners had also won at a left handed track and of those eight had actually raced over the National fences. Using all that criteria (which as I say are only pointers for the lazy) the following qualify: Giorgio Quercus and Soll. The former fell in this last year and doesn’t look all that well handicapped, while Soll actually came seventh in the National – beaten a fair way admittedly. His record recently doesn’t look all that great and he may actually find 2m 4f a little too sharp. Told you the pointers were useless. Anyway I’m going with Soll mainly because of the trends and another, You Must Know Me. The latter has a decent weight and his performance in the Grand Sefton off 138 suggests he can go well again of only 2lb higher. He gets a big swing from Rebel Rebellion from that run.

 

• You Must Know Me 0.5pt e/w @ 22/1
• Soll 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1

 

 

4.15 Aintree

Christ this is taking forever! Haha… Next up a 3m race for novice hurdlers. Long prices have held sway in this in recent years and although I do think Seeyouatmidnight is the best horse officially in the race, I’d rate his performance in the Rendlesham through Mickie and not Celestial Halo – both ran pretty averagely “poor even” at Cheltenham. He is a worthy favourite though and if he was trained by Nicholls or Henderson undoubtedly he’d be a lot shorter than 9/2. Alas I’m swerving him in favour of two unexposed horses who really could be anything in this field and at the prices are worth chancing. Take out the favourite and the next best is rated 143 so it’s relatively compact. Capote has won a couple of egg and spoon races but done so majorly impressively and with the Champion jockey on board could be anything. The other I like is Port Melon who is somewhat of a nutter but was thrown into a Grade 2 on his first start for Nicholls. He’s obviously highly thought and at 20s is worth a nibble. Of the rest I do also like Donald McCain’s The Last Samuri. Go for the unexposed ones!

 

• Capote 1pt win @ 10/1
• Port Melon 0.5pt win @ 20/1

 

4.50 Aintree

Time is of the essence and I have none so this will be brief. The market is headed by the two rather unexposed horses in Stonebrook and Zabana both of whom could be well ahead of their marks at the bottom of the handicap. Both though are up in class considerably and will not have competed in the hustle and bustle of a 22 runner race. A few I think who are well handicapped and who do have experience in these mad dashes are Cash And Go and Alaivan. The former is one I keep looking to back and he keeps making me look foolish – but down off a mark of 135 he’s becoming very interesting considering he was second in the Greatwood last season off 141. Alaivan I’ve put up before also and he races here off 127 with the claim and the extra step up in distance is something that really appeals. His old form from 2012 entitles him to have a stone in hand. Of the rest Party Rock has a decent record at Aintree and he was second in a decent race of 5lb higher earlier in the season – purely because he is 40s I’d be annoyed if he won without backing him. Cheltenian will no doubt get punted but he remains risky and the top weight Attaglance won this race in 2012 off 1lb lower. He is too short for me though.

 

• Alavian 1.5pt e/w @ 16/1
• Cash and Go 1pt e/w @ 18/1
• Party Rock 0.25pt @ 40/1

 

 

One more from me.

 

• 3.55 Sedgefield – Amir Pasha 1pt win @ 10/1

 

Up at Sedgefield I do think Amir Pasha can run a decent race and perhaps spring a surprise at 10/1. His record over C&D reads as 2241143 and he is now off a lower mark (jockey’s claim included) then when winning a similar race back in November. The favourite is obviously going to be hard to beat with his jockey’s claim negating the 7lb rise for a win at Uttoxeter and Wilde Pastures has a chase rating in the high 120s. So running of effectively 99 here he is dangerous. But going with Amir Pasha.

 

 

Keji has two more bets for tomorrow. I will elaborate when he does….

Thursday 3rd April

Couple to add from Keji.

 

• 4.05 Lingfield – Fossa 1pt win @ 12/1

A bit of a stab in the dark this one, primarily because hes returning from a 181 day break, but Fossa was very much an improving individual last year, ultra consistent and looked like a horse who would step up a bit as a 4 year old. The fact the favourite for the race is 5/1 shows you how wide open this race is. Fossa is a C & D winner and the way he won on his penultimate run suggested a mark of 73 is definately not beyond him. Robert Winston is as solid a jockey as you could wish for and again another one creeping into the race as bottom weight, hes a stand out bet. There are of course dangers, plenty of horses having won last time out, including a blog selection in Glastonberry, but those horses are a bit more exposed and off higher marks have work to do to beat a likely improver.

 

• 5.25 Aintree – Caroles Destrier 1pt win @ 11/1

Neil Mulholland has his horses in fine form at the moment and the way this one popped up at Kempton last time out was impressive. She’s not got an amazing turn of foot but stays and stays and with just a 6lb rise for that Kempton win can go in again. Needless to say this is a far more competitive affair but the step up to 3 miles will be right up her street and creeping into this handicap of bottom weight only adds to the appeal. Im a fan of Jetson and he will no doubt run another cracker, but the handicapper has him and there’s little improvement to come. Though the selection ran only 19 days ago, she skipped the Cheltenham festival and therefore avoided a hard race, she’s an improver and should not be underestimated.

 

Aintree Day One

The losers returned today – albeit Al Alfa was an unfortunate one and it was even more galling that Hector’s Choice was the one to beat him. Three points lost on the day. The three days of the Grand National meet kick off tomorrow and although we won’t have bets in everything I’ve listed a few pointers below for those who may want to bet in everything. Keji has a couple of bets which I will update later and there is also one from Taunton.

 

2.00 Juvenile Hurdle

This is a decent start to proceedings and looks on paper a better race than the Triumph with Activial the Adonis winner in the mixer. Calipto was the unlucky horse in the Triumph but bar the actual winner who looks pretty smart I don’t think the form actually amounts to all that much. Kentucky Hyden who was second had previously been well beaten by Nick Williams’ La Rocher. Interestingly horses that haven’t raced on the flat have a poor record in here. On a strict trends line 4 of the last 6 winners ran in the Adonis finishing 1113 which is a decent pointer to Activial. The highest finisher in the Triumph (Guitar Pete) also has a decent record with 5 wins and 4 seconds from the last ten runs. Big pointer to the Irish horse. The favourite also has a good record in the race with 7 of the last 9 winners. Purely on ratings you’d fancy Calipto and his record on flat tracks reads well with 2 from 2. Of the remainder I’d be keen on Aurore D’Estruval for the excellent John Quinn stable who should know where he stands with this mare on a line through Rutherglen and Pearl Castle. She gets a decent weight allowance and can go well at a double figure price. She missed Cheltenham and although has only raced on heavy the form of that Haydock race looks decent with Hawk High well in behind. For a pure bet I’d back Calipto and then probably have a saver on Aurore D’Estruval.

 

2.30 Betfred Bowl

The Bowl has in recent years been a graveyard for favourites with only one winning since 2004 for a level stakes loss of £7.50. Likewise Paul Nicholls has a pretty dreadful record in the race and he has saddled four of those beaten favourites. David Pipe does have a decent record in the race and Our Vic and Madison Du Berlais have won the race for him recently. Of the principles I’d prefer to side with Dynaste who won at this meeting last year, will like the ground and has a decent record on flat tracks – albeit so does Silvianico Conti who has yet to finish out of the places on flat or mainly flat tracks. He though may have peaked for the Gold Cup and this could be an afterthought. First Lieutenant missed Cheltenham – but that wasn’t the plan as he was pulled out on the day – so it’s not like he missed that meeting for this and although he won the race last year – he is better in bigger fields. Record in races with 6 or less runners is 11P434. The remaining three shouldn’t be good enough and although Dynaste is only 15/8 I think he is the most likely winner. His record in races with less than 6 runners is 111 and he will love the ground – record on good; good to soft is 11211. Conti for me is a better horse on softer/heavy ground. Totally ignoring that favourite stat ha!

• Dynaste 2pt win @ 15/8

 

 

3.05 Aintree Hurdle

This really should be a walk in the park for The New One and his price suggests he will take a lot of beating. I don’t really see the need to oppose him but I do think Diakili is the one who could give him the biggest fright. This horse was one I put up for the County Hurdle and he ran a cracker to come fourth there with top weight. The Irish have won this event 6 of the last 11 years and Diakili’s form at Christmas behind Jezki suggests he can run well at around 10s. Of the rest Rock On Ruby and Grandouet have both given up on the jumping game and although both were smart over hurdles – The New One has previously put both well in their place. I’d be concerned about the trip for Grandouet also and I’m no longer backing him blindly. Grumeti has a decent record on flat tracks but looks out of form. Irish Saint and Ptit Zig have a lot to find.

 

3.40 Foxhunters

Not a race I tend to ever have a bet in and this one will be no different as I think Mossey Joe should win this. I actually backed him for the National three or four weeks ago so the fact he is in here is a little galling. Interestingly enough nine of the last ten winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1 so something like Warne could be worth a small chance. On ratings though Mossey Joe is a cut above.

 

4.15 Red Rum Handicap Chase

Time is marching on and I’m running out of it so will try and speed things up here … A few interesting trends. 10/10 winners had won a chase going left handed – excludes a few notable runners – including Claret Cloak. 9/10 winners had a won a chase at class 3 or above – excludes Claret Cloak and Arnaud. Now trends are not the be all and end all but I also think Claret Cloak may have run his race at Cheltenham, albeit he ran a fantastic race there. The two I like against the field are Anay Turge who has some decent chase form when he doesn’t unseat his rider – record last 18 months reads 11U221UP. He has 2 decent second places finishes at the track and also is 112 on good to soft. He’s got some decent form in relation to the progressive Eastlake and Tom Bellamy takes off a handy 7lb in first time blinkers which could sharpen up his jumping. The other one I like is the Dr Richard Newland trained Changing The Guard. He has decent form on flat tracks and ran a decent race of this mark a few weeks back at Stratford.

• Anay Turge 1pt e/w @ 18/1
• Changing The Guard 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1

 

 

4.50 Manifesto Novices

Very few trends in this one as it’s a relatively new race. The market is being shaped by Oscar Whisky who continues to be priced up on reputation alone and not jumping ability. He has jumped sketchily throughout his chase career and although unlucky at Cheltenham I don’t really see why he should be shorter than Western Warhorse, the Arkle winner. The Pipe horse won that race at 33/1 but it’s worth noting it looked a decent Arkle and he beat them all fair and square – it’s also worth noting he wasn’t stopping at the line gaining on the excellent Champagne Fever who will surely improve over trips. He’s proved he can get the trip having beaten Victor Hewgo at Doncaster. My only concern over Western Warhorse would be wehther Cheltenham took it out of him. Alas he holds Dodging Bullets – and I wouldn’t back that one anywhere until next Autumn; record post-Christmas is woeful. Fox Appeal is a dour type but this may prove a little sharp for him. Uxizandre won’t get an easy lead here with Western Warhorse in the field and although he ran well in the Jewson he actually has 8lb to find with the Arkle winner. All in all I do think the Pipe horse should be shorter and his Arkle win has somewhat been ignored because of its price.

• Western Warhorse 2pt win @ 11/4

 

5.25 3m Handicap Hurdle

I’ve no time to spend an age on blurting on here. Two I like against the field though – I know Keji likes another. On The Bridge has a very respectable record in hurdle races with 10+ runners on flat tracks – 8 places from 10 runs and he ran a cracker in the Pertemps to fly up the hill. He has accelerated up the weights this year but could still have a little more to give off 140. The other one I like is the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner Kaylif Aramis. He has won a couple of these big field handicaps and a recent breathing op sharpened him up more. He was running well in the Coral Cup before coming to grief 3 out – had yet to be asked for his effort. The trip is a slight unknown but there could be more improvement for the extra distance.

• On The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 14/1
• Kaylif Aramis 1pt e/w @ 16/1

 

Before I sign off I do like one at Taunton also.

 

• 3.20 Taunton – Dunraven Storm 1pt win @ 5/1

Dunraven Storm has dropped nicely in the weights and ran well for a long time last time out in the County Hurdle. He looked to retain a lot of his ability off 132 back in November and off 135 today he can take this prize having once been rated 150 over the obstacles. Solar Impulse ran with credit in the Fred Winter but doesn’t look particularly well handicapped to me off 135 and looks to have a bit of Nicholls hype about him.